By Matthew Mahaffey
With more than a third of the season behind us, caution now begins to give way to evaluation. Small sample size is still a usable and needed control, but so are the statistics we now have before us. This is most prevalent with regard to team analysis as opposed to individual players, because the collective nature of team statistics partially corrects itself, unlike an individual with 230 great plate appearances.
So which teams are for real? There is a bevy of statistics available to analyze this, but really all that matters are two things – 1) what can be expected from here on out, and 2) in what division and league is this expected production going to occur.
Unfortunately for the Baltimore Orioles, number two is going to kill them.
The Orioles have put together a 20-18 stretch of baseball since late April while playing the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Nationals, and Phillies. Only six games against the Royals during that time for respite. And they played over .500 baseball.
This is the stretch where most reasonable people assumed the Orioles would, at the very least, stumble. They didn’t; and now they get a brief break until late July, though a break for a team in the AL East is like the hardest part of a NL Central schedule. Still, if they continue playing like they have over the last 38 games, they should at least hold serve.
But what does holding serve mean for the Orioles? Like the NL East, the AL East currently has only one team under .500. Unlike the NL East however, nobody in the AL East should be, at least according to third order win percentage.
The AL East is the only division where, according to third order win percentage, everybody is playing over .500 baseball. In fact, using this metric, no other division has fewer than two teams under .500. The NL East provides the closest competition with their weakest two teams (Marlins and Mets) playing .484 and .469 ball. The Orioles, the “worst” team in the AL East, is playing .503 according to third order.
The Orioles should get Brian Roberts back soon to replace Robert Andino at second. Besides being a Red Sox killer, Andino also doubles as a major league baseball player imposter. To say this will be an upgrade is almost insulting, because it allows for the possibility that Andino is starting for a major league team with a winning percentage above .400.
But Roberts’ addition will not save the rotation. Jake Arrieta should improve (he can’t be much worse), but does that mean league average or reaching his potential as a number three starter? Wei-Yin Chen has been great, but his fly ball tendencies are problematic. Matusz is perplexing at best. Was he overrated to begin with, or is he falling short due to what is heard in the whispers – work ethic and injury? And Tommy Hunter is Jeremy Guthrie. That leaves Jason Hammel, who somehow found his strikeout pitch this year.
Returning to the original two analytical questions, the Orioles can expect a regression in the starting rotation, improvement in the offense, and possible improvement in the bullpen. How big the rotation regression is will dictate how long they stay close enough to matter.
But, even assuming they are close in late August, what then? The Orioles play a brutal September slate, so would they be willing to go for it? The answer is no. Not in the AL East.
The Orioles have to play it safe, with arguably the best one-two prospect punch in the major leagues in Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, and almost everyone of importance at the major league level at age 28 or younger—many 26 and under.
Under the new playoff system, this team could afford to go for it in the National League or in any other American League division. But lucky and semi-smart ain’t good enough in the monster division. But this may be their strongest argument for going for it, because it isn’t going to be that much easier in 2014.
