by Matthew Mahaffey
What is the most valued non-pitcher position in baseball? There is no perfect order, but an accepted one – and oft used – would be C-SS-CF-2B-3B-RF-1B-LF. Some would argue that SS and C should be swapped; others say that 1B and LF could be. Either way, this is pretty acceptable.
Now a second question – which of the following would you rather have? Choice one: A .300-plus hitter with a .380-plus on-base percentage and 20-25 home runs with 50-plus stolen bases; a gold-glove CF with plus-plus makeup and energy. Choice two: A .280-plus catcher with a rocket arm and decent plate-blocking skills with projected power of 30 plus home runs per year, peaking at somewhere over 40 long-balls; super work ethic and workable make-up; decent speed but stolen bases are gravy.
Close, but it is hard to argue against choice two. That would be something almost unseen. Only Mike Piazza had that kind of power projection, and his defense left something to be desired. But what if choice two became a RF, LF, or 1B? Hard to go wrong with either, but the edge would have to go to the up-the-middle defender. Positional scarcity is the tie-breaker.
Back to reality. Bryce Harper hammered his first major league home run Monday night. If scouting reports and prognosticators are to be believed, it will be the first of many. As mentioned everywhere except Al Jazeera and websites with examples of good haircuts, Harper has 80 grade power. Some have suggested that 80 isn’t high enough, but that is as far as the scale goes.
As established by Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, chicks dig the long-ball, so Harper has been all the media rage since his arrival on the MLB stage. No one has been happier about this than Albert Pujols, though one of his teammates may not be as thrilled.
Heading into 2012, three prospects were thought to be “can’t miss” – Matt Moore, Bryce Harper, and Pujols’ teammate Mike Trout. Depending on what expert website you fancy, any one of those three could have held the title of “best prospect in baseball.”
Baseball Prospectus had Moore. Baseball America had Harper. MLB.com had Trout. Yu Darvish was usually 4th, but the top three were seen in a league of their own, specific ordering being a matter of personal preference.
It is way too early in the season to say that any of these three has established themselves as the front-runner in the best of the best race, but Matt Moore’s struggles have left many scratching their head. He is walking too many batters and professional hitters are taking advantage and waiting for something to crush. He’ll get going, but with the reality that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect due to fragility and projection intricacies, it is too tough to evaluate Moore alongside Harper and Trout.
As you have now correctly concluded, the above two hypothetical players are Trout and Harper. The descriptions are taken from multiple scouting reports of the two before the season, or during last season. Again, if you were starting a team, you would be smiling if they were in your system. There isn’t a wrong choice here.
Still, I am puzzled by what I’ll call the “average fan” buzz and preference of Harper over Trout. Much of this is, no doubt, driven by the media craze over baby Bryce. His first home run led MLB.com Monday. He is a bit younger. He is joining Stephen Stasburg, whom I would argue was even a bigger prospect. He has terrible hair, to go with Strasburg’s beard-like monstrosity.
I understand that power is important, and that Bryce Harper has this in spades over Mike Trout. But Trout is no slouch in the power department and is currently slugging much better in the much better league. Of the five tools – hitting, power, defense, throwing, and running – Trout wins 3 to 2, easily winning running and taking hitting and defense without too much of an argument. Harper easily wins power (he would win this against almost anyone) and throwing. But unless they play him in RF, this renders his arm a lot less valuable than it was at C.
Bryce Harper is a beast in the making. Barring injury, he is going to be a threat for 500 home runs. That is a helluva player. But I’ll leave with a quote from an American League scouting executive – courtesy of Baseball Prospectus – who said, “Harper is going to produce more runs than Trout, and be an MVP-level hitter, but Trout is going to do what he does as a center fielder, and when you take that into account, he’s far more valuable.”